Den underrättelse rapport som just har lagts fram av CIA i Washington ändrar dramatiskt på hela situationen i Mellanöstern.
Iran: Nuclear Intentions and
Capabilities
We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons
program1; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is
keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium
enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.
Rapporten drar plötsligt mattan från under vicepresident Dick Cheney och den neokonservativa flygeln i Washington som har ivrat krig mot Iran i flera år nu.
De första indikationerna från Vita Huset (se nedan) visar att president Bush kommer att fortsätta med sina försök att isolera Iran. Men hela Mellanösternekvationen har med ens förändrats på ett synnerligen dramatiskt sätt.
Pamela Hess skriver i Washington Post om den senaste underrättelseraporten om Irans atomprogram: U.S. Officials: Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003
Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003 under international pressure but is continuing to enrich uranium, which means it may still be able to develop a weapon between 2010 and 2015, senior intelligence officials said Monday.
That finding is a change from two years ago, when U.S. intelligence agencies believed Iran was determined to develop a nuclear capability and was continuing its weapons development program. It suggests that Iran is susceptible to diplomatic pressure, the official said.
“Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005,” states the unclassified summary of the secret report, released Monday.
Officials said the new findings suggest that diplomacy was effective in containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions
Här är Vita Husets svar på rapporten, från President Bushs säkerhetspolitiske rådgivare Stephen Hadley,:
Today’s National Intelligence Estimate offers some positive news. It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen.
But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem. The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically — without the use of force — as the Administration has been trying to do. And it suggests that the President has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution that serves Iranian interests while ensuring that the world will never have to face a nuclear armed Iran.
The bottom line is this: for that strategy to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran — with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure — and Iran has to decide it wants to negotiate a solution.
[tags] USA, Irak, Iran, Israel, Syrien, Mellan%oe%stern, Palestina, Palestine, Kriget mot Terrorismen, Gaza, Jerusalem, Bagdad, Baghdad /tags]
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Sitter hemma för skolstyrelsen jag jobbar hos har idag stängt våra skolor och Board Office p.g.a. säsongens första snöstorm som har gett oss 35 cm snö. We love snow days!
Vintern är tidig här med kalla temperaturer -17C i helgen och mycket tidig snö...Faktum är att trots den s.k. "globala uppvärmningen" så säger metrologer och klimatforskare att vi står inför den kallaste vintern i mannaminne från kust till kust i Canada denna vinter. Får en att börja undra... ;-) Och snön yr utanför fönstret...Isbjörnsväder, kanske finns det hopp för oss trots Al Gores "Good Lies" propaganda...
Lämna gärna en kommentar! Scandinavian-language comments only please!